Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
By all available indications, the White House drafted a face-saving note and handed it, ready-made, to Islamabad. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif was supposed to then post it in the guise of a plea urging Trump to extend the deadline by two weeks 'to allow diplomacy to run its course'. Trump would then graciously accept Pakistan's 'request' and declare a ceasefire. Sharif dutifully posted the message on X. Except that he, or whoever was handling the account, forgot to delete the tell-tale first line visible in the edit history: 'Draft - Pakistan's PM Message on X'. Prem Panicker's must read blog on the Iran War.
Trump's outburst comes amid escalating tensions between the US and its northern neighbour, following recent remarks by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos.
Amidst ongoing conflict, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signals a potential de-escalation by apologising to neighbouring countries while firmly rejecting US President Donald Trump's demand for unconditional surrender.
'What we have yet to see on either the US or the Iranian side is willingness to compromise on their ultimate demands and the flexibility to reach an agreement to end the war.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
Iranian military spokesperson said that stability in the region would be ensured only by the strength of Iran's armed forces and warned that energy and oil markets would not return to previous levels unless this reality was acknowledged.
'India's ties with Israel have to do with defence and general technology.' 'The war changes nothing in what India and Israel hope to get from the relationship.' 'It's not as though India will get significantly more benefits from Iran if India abandons Israel at this time.'
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
'We were in a heavily nuclearised environment. China had tested for Pakistan in the 1980s and helped their missile programme stay just one step behind us.'
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel and the US struck Iran because Tehran had restarted its nuclear programme and it would have gone 'immune within months'. He claimed Iran was building new underground sites to shield its missile and nuclear programmes from attacks.
For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian maintained a stance of defensive necessity, noting that Tehran is "forced to retaliate to attacks" but clarified that this does not imply a dispute with neighbouring countries
'The White House lunch that Trump hosted for Munir last year came just after Munir returned from a visit to Iran, at a moment when Israel and Iran were at war.' 'Trump said after that lunch that the Pakistanis know Iran very well. He likely views Munir as a useful interlocutor that can give helpful insights on Iran.'
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
India and the UK have announced a series of defence cooperation initiatives, including a USD 468 million deal for the supply of lightweight multirole missile systems to enhance India's air defence capabilities.
'Strikes into the Gulf countries are proof that the security guarantees offered by the US are ineffective and that the Gulf countries cannot rely on American security assurances for their safety.'
The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
India's handling of the Iran crisis reflects a growing strain between strategic autonomy and geopolitical alignment, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'Despite the large number of missiles and drones we have already launched, we still possess reserves and missile cities whose doors have not yet been opened,' says Iran's Consul-General Saeid Reza Mosayeb Motlagh.
'Much will depend on the position of the United States.' 'It will have to be seen to what extent the US will be more interested in achieving some form of a deal and to what extent Israel will be allowed to continue to carry out both airstrikes and the killing of Iranian officials.'
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
The Indian embassy in Saudi Arabia has confirmed that one Indian national was injured in a projectile incident in Al Kharj, while clarifying that there were no Indian fatalities. The embassy is providing assistance and is in contact with Saudi authorities.
When missiles fly in this region, they are never just aimed at military targets.
The ministry of interior of Bahrain on Sunday claimed that Iran attacked civilian targets in a water desalination plant after a drone attack.
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
'Our diplomacy should have been focused on preventing war and avoiding the inevitable disruptions it would cause, posing a real risk to India's growth story,' asserts former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
The Indian Defence Ministry has approved the procurement of 114 Rafale fighter jets from France, a significant step towards bolstering the Indian Air Force's combat capabilities. The decision comes ahead of French President Emmanuel Macron's visit to India.
'Without ground troops the US will not be able to oust the Iranian Islamic regime. Political change does not happen just by using bombs or planes.'
Iran launched retaliatory military strikes targeting Israel and American military bases across the region, including in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan.
As days turn into weeks and America loses more planes, as the destruction of trillions of dollars worth military assets piles up, and dead bodies of soldiers return in ever greater numbers in coffins, Trump will have to answer some very difficult questions to save his presidency, notes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a joint operation with the US against Iran, citing the threat posed by its nuclear ambitions and support for terrorism.
Dubai's core promise -- that it is an oasis untouched by regional storms -- has been tested in full public view. The coming months will show whether investors view the attacks as a short-lived disruption or a deeper signal of lasting risk, points out Asif Ullah Khan.
The Indian government has directed oil refineries to increase LPG production to ensure a stable supply of domestic cooking gas, amidst concerns over potential disruptions from the escalating Middle East conflict and its impact on imports.
'The additional Rafales will be from a vastly improved version compared to the 36 acquired for the IAF under the 2016 deal.'
Israel and the United States had a plan. Iran punched back. And now the Gulf is reeling, the world is beginning to feel the pain and, as on date, no one in Washington or Tel Aviv appears willing to admit that the punch has landed, notes Prem Panicker, continuing his must-read blog on the war in the Middle East.
When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins, notes Prem Panicker who begins a daily blog on the War in the Middle East.
Fight on toward goals that keep receding, or exit with most objectives unmet. Trump is agitated, his poll numbers falling below the Plimsoll line, his base fractured between those who back the war and those who remember that he campaigned on ending them.
What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
The threat of wars hovers over the negotiations in Oman, but the good part is that Trump called the talks to be 'very good' and Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian responded that they 'constitute a step forward', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
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